Friday, October 10, 2008

Matrimonial Math

The news broke today that Connecticut is about to become the third state to allow gay marriages.

I was feeling just snarky enough that I jumped immediately to the conclusion that people in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and California must just be smarter than everyone else. Er, except New Yorkers.

However, I decided to be fair and test the hypothesis. My hunt for statistics netted me a data set produced by Morgan Quitno Press, which is lately become a subsidiary of the Congressional Review. It aggregates twenty-one different measures of the effectiveness of education in each state, and ranks the states according to which is "smartest."

Massachusetts and Connecticut, as I predicted, rank second and third respectively. California has not done so well. Of course California is a big compost heap of a state and I suspect its smartness is extremely regionalized. Curiously, Vermont and New Jersey, both of which have Civil Union laws, rank first and fourth.

So smart people are more liberal?

There is a correlation between how smart a state is and whether it is colored red or blue on the New York Times electoral map. I have grouped together states according to the Times's categories and predicted outcomes--Solid Obama, Leaning Obama, Tossup, Leaning McCain, and Solid McCain--and calculated average smartness scores for each group, expressed as a GPA.
OutcomeGPA
Solid Obama2.36
Leaning Obama2.14
Tossup1.87
Leaning McCain2.27
Solid McCain1.60


The correlation is not perfect but I'm satisfied. I do wish we were doing better than a C+, though.

Arizona, John McCain's state, comes in last at number 50, though to be fair, Barack Obama's Illinois, at number 35 is not doing a whole lot better. Maybe that's why Obama had to sit through meetings with Bill Ayres.

1 comment:

mdr said...
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